1. Split the season into price periods
Full price runs until your first markdown date. Each markdown date opens a new period that ends at the next break or at season end.
Seasonal markdown planner
Plan the whole markdown schedule, not one percentage off.
Set the sell-through you expect in each price period, then read maintained margin, ending stock, and cash recovered as a defensible range — not one false-precision number.
Free, no sign-up. Printable decision memo, CSV export, shareable scenario link · markdown strategy guide
Example markdown plan
4,200 units · $18 cost · $49 ticket · season ends Nov 30
+18.4%
cash recovered vs. one 50% break
| Date | Price period | Units sold | Maint. margin | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Full price | 1,420 | 58.2% | $42,600 |
| Wk 4 | 15% off | 2,890 | 44.5% | $68,150 |
| Wk 8 | 30% off | 1,104 | 34.1% | $19,872 |
| Wk 11 | 50% off | 462 | 29.8% | $6,930 |
- Ending units
- 124 – 386
- Maintained margin
- 38.6% ± 4.2
- Sensitivity band
- Slow · Planned · Fast
Illustrative figures. Every rate, date, and sell-through assumption is editable below.
Seasonal markdown planner
Two scenarios are loaded so you can compare a steady cadence against an early break. Edit anything — results update as you type.
1 · Inventory position
Context only — shows the pace you already ran.
What you are willing to carry out of the season.
Jobber, outlet, or carryover value at season end.
2 · Season window
Share of remaining units sold per week.
3 · Markdown schedule
Up to six price periods. Every period carries its own sell-through assumption — that is the number most calculators hide.
Step #1
Step #2
Step #3
Sensitivity spread±30%
How wrong your weekly sell-through guesses could be. Every output is reported as a band, not a single false-precision number.
Maintained margin
47.6%
49.6% – 45.3% range
Expected ending stock
148 u
70 – 293 u range
Target 60 u
Cash recovered
$37,444
$32,453 – $41,012 range
Margin erosion
14.9 pts
from 62.5% initial margin
Sensitivity band
Demand assumptions flexed ±30% against your per-period rates
| Case | Sell-through | Ending units | Cash recovered | Maintained margin | Gross margin $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slow (−30%) | 75.6% | 293 | $32,453 | 45.3% | $13,493 |
| Planned | 87.7% | 148 | $37,444 | 47.6% | $17,177 |
| Fast (+30%) | 94.2% | 70 | $41,012 | 49.6% | $20,043 |
Ends 88 units above target. Move a markdown earlier or deepen the last break.
Period-by-period walk
| Price period | Window | Weeks | Price | Wkly ST | Units sold | Left | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full price | Aug 16 → Sep 6 | 3 | $48.00 | 6% | 203 | 997 | $9,758 |
| 20% off | Sep 6 → Oct 4 | 4 | $38.40 | 11% | 371 | 625 | $14,260 |
| 40% off | Oct 4 → Oct 25 | 3 | $28.80 | 20% | 305 | 320 | $8,789 |
| 60% off | Oct 25 → Nov 8 | 2 | $19.20 | 32% | 172 | 148 | $3,305 |
Average unit retail $34.33 · markdown dollars taken $14,382 · salvage on leftovers $1,332
Scenarios side by side
| Scenario | First break | Steps | Maint. margin | Ending units | Cash recovered | Erosion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan A · steady | 20% · 09-06 | 3 | 47.6% | 148 (70–293) | $37,444 | 14.9 pts |
| Plan B · early break | 30% · 08-30 | 3 | 39.9% | 46 (13–140) | $34,960 | 22.6 pts |
Planned Markdown · decision memo
Season markdown recommendation
Prepared · demand flexed ±30% for the sensitivity band · plannedmarkdown.com
Plan A · steady
Starting position: 1,200 units at $18.00 cost against a $48.00 ticket, season ending 2026-11-08. Schedule: 20% off from 2026-09-06 (11%/wk), 40% off from 2026-10-04 (20%/wk), 60% off from 2026-10-25 (32%/wk).
Planned outcome: 87.7% sell-through, 148 units remaining (88 vs the 60-unit target), $37,444 cash recovered, and 47.6% maintained margin — 14.9 points below the 62.5% initial margin.
Sensitivity: if demand runs 30% slower, expect 293 units left and 45.3% maintained margin. If it runs 30% faster, expect 70 units left and 49.6% maintained margin. Cash recovered ranges $32,453 to $41,012.
Plan B · early break
Starting position: 1,200 units at $18.00 cost against a $48.00 ticket, season ending 2026-11-08. Schedule: 30% off from 2026-08-30 (16%/wk), 50% off from 2026-09-27 (26%/wk), 70% off from 2026-10-18 (40%/wk).
Planned outcome: 96.1% sell-through, 46 units remaining (-14 vs the 60-unit target), $34,960 cash recovered, and 39.9% maintained margin — 22.6 points below the 62.5% initial margin.
Sensitivity: if demand runs 30% slower, expect 140 units left and 35.4% maintained margin. If it runs 30% faster, expect 13 units left and 43.4% maintained margin. Cash recovered ranges $30,813 to $37,870.
How the math works
Four steps, no hidden assumptions
2. Deplete stock week by week
Each period sells its weekly sell-through percentage of the units still on hand, compounded over the weeks in that period. Later breaks work on a smaller base — which is exactly why late-season 60% off recovers less cash than people expect.
3. Rebuild margin from realized retail
Revenue and cost of goods sold accumulate per period. Maintained margin is gross margin over realized revenue; margin erosion is the point gap against initial margin on the original ticket.
4. Flex the demand guess
The sensitivity spread scales every sell-through rate up and down together, giving a slow / planned / fast band for ending stock, cash, and margin. Leftover units are valued at your recovery-per-unit figure.
Who uses it
Built for the people who own the sell-down
Buyers and planners
Test a markdown cadence before the open-to-buy meeting and show the margin cost of each break in points, not vibes.
Independent shop owners
Decide whether to take 20% now or 40% in three weeks with the cash number attached to each choice.
Ecommerce merchandisers
Model a seasonal promo ladder, compare it to a single clearance event, and export the schedule for the promo calendar.
Answers
Markdown planning questions
Not sure which cadence to model?
The retail markdown strategy guide covers markdown timing, how deep each break needs to be, and how to set an ending-stock target before you commit dates. New to the terminology? Start with markdown vs markup for the formulas and a markup-to-margin conversion table.
Keep the plans you build
The calculator is free and always will be. Saved plans, CSV imports, and the season-planning pack are for teams running many classes at once.