Pace against plan
Two consecutive weeks
Cumulative sell-through below the pace your plan expected for that season week, sustained across two weeks. One week off pace is weather, a shipment, or a holiday shift.
Use them together. Any one on its own produces either constant reaction or constant delay.
Two consecutive weeks
Cumulative sell-through below the pace your plan expected for that season week, sustained across two weeks. One week off pace is weather, a shipment, or a holiday shift.
The hard trigger
Remaining units ÷ current weekly units, compared against the weeks left before the exit date. Supply above runway means the current price will not clear the stock — full stop.
For non-seasonal stock
A days-on-hand threshold per class, so items with no hard season end still surface for a decision instead of quietly aging into salvage.
The same units and the same ending-stock target, approached three ways in a 14-week season.
| Timing | Depth | What is left to sell into | Typical outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Break in week 4 | 20% then 40% | 9 wks of demand left after the first break | Highest maintained margin of the three |
| Break in week 7 | 25% then 50% | 6 wks left, assortment thinning | Middle margin, higher ending-stock risk |
| Break in week 11 | 60% single clearance | 3 wks left, broken sizes | Lowest margin and the widest range of outcomes |
Directional, not a promise — the ranking depends on the sell-through lift your category actually gets at each depth. Model all three with your own rates before committing.
A deep break late in the season works on a smaller base and a broken assortment. The units remaining are the sizes and colours nobody wanted at three previous prices, the weeks left to sell them are few, and anything unsold recovers only salvage value. That combination is why a 60% clearance frequently returns less cash than a 25% break taken six weeks earlier.
The counterexample is non-seasonal, replenishable product. If demand does not expire, holding price and letting inventory run down slowly can be the better trade — the carrying cost is the only thing you are paying.
Compare three figures: cash from selling at the break you are considering, realistic recovery next season net of storage and carrying cost, and the probability the item dates further. Classics and basics survive carryover. Trend, fashion, and dated seasonal product usually do not — next season's version competes directly against it, at full price.
Test the same units with an early shallow cadence and a late deep one, side by side.
How to calculate the velocity signals behind these triggers.
What to do when the late break is the only option left.
Scheduling breaks in advance so timing is a plan rather than a reaction.
Answers
Model the break you are considering against the same break three weeks later, and read the difference in maintained margin, ending stock, and cash recovered.