When to mark down inventory

The markdown decision is a race between the stock you are holding and the weeks you have left to sell it. Three signals decide it: weekly sell-through against plan, weeks of supply against weeks remaining, and inventory age. Depth is the second question — timing is the one that costs you the most margin when you get it wrong.

The three triggers

Use them together. Any one on its own produces either constant reaction or constant delay.

Markdown triggers worth acting on

Pace against plan

Two consecutive weeks

Cumulative sell-through below the pace your plan expected for that season week, sustained across two weeks. One week off pace is weather, a shipment, or a holiday shift.

Weeks of supply vs runway

The hard trigger

Remaining units ÷ current weekly units, compared against the weeks left before the exit date. Supply above runway means the current price will not clear the stock — full stop.

Inventory age

For non-seasonal stock

A days-on-hand threshold per class, so items with no hard season end still surface for a decision instead of quietly aging into salvage.

Early and shallow versus late and deep

The same units and the same ending-stock target, approached three ways in a 14-week season.

Three timing choices for the same seasonal buy
TimingDepthWhat is left to sell intoTypical outcome
Break in week 420% then 40%9 wks of demand left after the first breakHighest maintained margin of the three
Break in week 725% then 50%6 wks left, assortment thinningMiddle margin, higher ending-stock risk
Break in week 1160% single clearance3 wks left, broken sizesLowest margin and the widest range of outcomes

Directional, not a promise — the ranking depends on the sell-through lift your category actually gets at each depth. Model all three with your own rates before committing.

Why late clearance disappoints

A deep break late in the season works on a smaller base and a broken assortment. The units remaining are the sizes and colours nobody wanted at three previous prices, the weeks left to sell them are few, and anything unsold recovers only salvage value. That combination is why a 60% clearance frequently returns less cash than a 25% break taken six weeks earlier.

The counterexample is non-seasonal, replenishable product. If demand does not expire, holding price and letting inventory run down slowly can be the better trade — the carrying cost is the only thing you are paying.

Sell now or carry to next season?

Compare three figures: cash from selling at the break you are considering, realistic recovery next season net of storage and carrying cost, and the probability the item dates further. Classics and basics survive carryover. Trend, fashion, and dated seasonal product usually do not — next season's version competes directly against it, at full price.

Keep planning

Answers

Markdown timing questions

Price the cost of waiting

Model the break you are considering against the same break three weeks later, and read the difference in maintained margin, ending stock, and cash recovered.

Open the markdown planner